What's Changed
Real-world conditions, tracked honestly.
Not decisions with fixed answers — conditions we check and report on, including when nothing decisive happened yet.
Housing
Refinance or lock a mortgage rate now, or wait?
Chance Fed holds, not hikes~62%
Current 30-yr mortgage rate6.55%
Next triggerJul 29 Fed decision
Jul 26, AM
First tracked. Fed under new Chair Warsh has turned hawkish; market pricing a hold, not the cut previously expected.
Jul 26, PM
Hike odds actually rose since morning: CME FedWatch showed 10.7% on Jul 15, 34.7% by Jul 22, ~38% by Jul 24 — driven by oil-price increases from the Iran conflict.
Trade
Buy the tariffed goods now, before Aug 19, or after?
Tariff effective dateAug 19
New tariff rate50%
ConfidenceSet — scheduled, not a forecast
Energy
Fill up now, before gas prices climb further?
National average, per gallon$4.11
Direction this weekRising
Driving factorIran conflict
Jul 26, AM
First tracked at $4.09/gal.
Jul 26, PM
Ticked up to $4.11/gal (AAA), 13 cents higher than a week ago, well above $3.14/gal last year.
Travel
Book the flight now, or wait for a price drop?
Fares, year over year+26.5%
Fares, month over month+0.2%
SignalFlattening, not confirmed